How Scotland can play a role in working towards a peaceful world
Donald Trump’s threat to commit genocide in Iran should be taken seriously even after it appears to have been averted.
Donald Trump appears to have finally found his exit ramp to his illegal war with Iran. If early reports are to be believed and if those reports lead to a peace that holds, it leaves the US militarily depleted, the world economy reeling, Iran substantially devastated, thousands of civilians dead and the Strait of Hormuz has become a toll road with the introduction of a transit fee of $2 million per ship, split between Iran and Oman. If (and this may be a large if) shipping traffic numbers recover to pre-war levels, that means Iran receiving approximately $150 million per day – almost $55 billion a year – in fees from a shipping route that used to be open and free to transit. This is comparable to and may even exceed the revenue they received from their own oil exports pre-war.
This represents nothing less than a comprehensive strategic defeat for Trump and the US even if the two week ceasefire turns into something more permanent. Trump started this illegal war, failed to change the regime and is now walking away leaving Iran in a stronger position than it was prior to the war.
But it does mean that the world wakes up this week to some kind of peace rather than a mushroom cloud over Tehran and with millions dead (though we still do not know what the long term effects will be of this conflict – especially around the impact of food production in years to come due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies).
Trump achieved this using his trademark “Art of the Deal” in which he applies brinksmanship pressure until the other side backs down and he “wins” (Trump appears to reject or be unaware of the concept of a ‘positive sum game’ where both parties can gain out of a deal – either he wins and you lose, or you’re somehow screwing him over even if he can’t see how yet).
This might work in the world of New York real estate where he learned his trade (though there’s evidence that it didn’t particularly work there either) but it doesn’t work in politics and especially not in diplomacy. On the eve of this peace deal, Trump had to escalate beyond the moral and legal maximum leaving himself with almost no way for him to back down. His words on Tuesday that “a whole civilisation will die” horrified the civilised world and even horrified some of his more loyal allies.
There’s good reason for that. That threat promised nothing less than genocide – defined by the Genocide Convention as the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical (sic), racial or religious group”. It is codified as one of the most, possibly the most, severe crimes that a human can inflict upon the world.
It is so severe that it is one of the few international laws that explicitly apply to “constitutionally responsible rules” – who are often considered to be immune to prosecution while they serve their terms – as well as to other public officials and to private individuals.
It is also so severe that the Convention doesn’t just apply to people who commit actual genocide but also those who ‘merely’ threaten to commit genocide. It’s not even considered a ‘lesser’ crime. The Convention treats actual and attempted genocide as well as conspiracy to commit genocide and the threat to commit genocide as equally punishable.
Trump must therefore be impeached, arrested and charged for his threat on Tuesday with the same vigour as he should have been had he carried out that threat on Wednesday.
John Swinney made the right call on Tuesday when he responded to Trump’s threat of genocide by calling it out for what it was. In doing so though, he has given himself an obligation on which he must now follow through. He must now take concrete steps to do what he can to bring about Trump’s prosecution under the Convention. It certainly means stating that Trump and other responsible members of his Government will be arrested if they set foot on Scottish soil.
Make no mistake. This isn’t merely some lefty trying to be petty. Failing to prevent genocide is another crime just as punishable as actively attempting it and so Scotland has an obligation – not an option – to deal with crimes of this magnitude when perpetrators come to Scotland and arrive within our jurisdiction.
This is a good thing for for the world. The Trump Doctrine of “Peace through Strength” has been shown up as a complete and total failure. All it does is encourage ‘Might as Right’ while simultaneously showing how weak and fragile the ‘Mighty’ actually are. The only thing that will create peace in the world is not a deranged hegemonic imperial power bombing people into submission with the most horrific weapons our species has yet invented but instead the only thing that has created peace of any kind in the world so far. Rule of Law and the submission of even the ‘Mighty’ under it for the good of all.
The breakdown of that system will take years to rebuild. We need all countries to step up and we need the collective United Nations to start functioning again and to actually hold those countries to account.
That task is much larger than I can express in this remaining article but it starts here. We cannot allow countries to threaten genocide without consequence. We cannot allow leaders to act as though they are beyond the law. We cannot allow unstable leaders to destabilise the world because of their personal failings. Scotland can yet be a beacon for peace and resilience in the world. All we need to do is follow our own rules.
