More children are leaving school early and it's not like there haven't been warnings

There is a fairly sharp rise in children who are leaving school in S4, the same in S5 and so a resulting drop in those leaving in S6. Before the pandemic about 11.4 per cent of pupils left school in S4 and this has risen to 14.4 per cent, a 26 per cent rise.

It should be stressed that a big majority of pupils go on to a fifth year at school and only a little more than one in four who start a fifth year but don't complete. But the trend is worrying nevertheless and it has been reported that Scottish Government Ministers are rightly concerned. What is less convincing is their response.

Ministers have briefed two courses of action they are proposing as a result of this. First, they are going to quiz guidance councillors on the advice they are giving kids, and second they are going to make it easier for kids who drop out of school to reenter education. While flexible learning paths will always be important, it is hard to credit the idea that there has been a recent sharp fall in the quality of career guidance services.

In fact it feels rather as if career guidance services have been scapegoated here, because this rise in those leaving school sits next to a host of other indicators that things are not well with our young Scots just now, including mental health rates, violence against teachers, indicators of poor social progress and lower rates of health.

Equally, it is not as if there has been a lack of warnings about the nature of Scotland's education system. Schools have largely been turned into 'exam factories' with the system as a whole seemingly designed primarily to provide a pathway to university. Simultaneously there has been a rising debate about the quality and value of that higher education and the career advance it gives.

Meanwhile it has been argued repeatedly that schools no longer cater effectively for pupils who do not end up on an academic pathway and that hiving them off to college for a 'technical education' is the correct response. That there appears to be poorer academic performance resulting from all of this does not suggest we are getting this right.

There is a debate to be had about the role and nature of assessment and attainment in the school system but the public debate often does not well serve this more thoughtful debate. Attainment and assessment are not the same, and where there is assessment there is a big difference between formative assessment (helping a teacher understand your progress through learning) and summative assessment (giving you a certificate to let others know you have a qualification).

Schooling is based very largely on a progression towards summative assessment and where it is debatable that this is the best approach for any child, it is very clearly not the right solution for every child. People for whom the academic path is not going to suit are poorly catered for in schools.

But there is a much bigger and wider debate around the wellbeing of young people. What is objectionable about the Scottish Government briefing is the apparent implication that this is something that school staff are getting wrong rather than a recognition that this is a much bigger social issue and schools are the location of the problem, not the cause.

There is much that we could do. Common Weal favours moving away from summative assessment altogether and would adopt the Finnish model of only one exit exam for those who need it with a much stronger focus on attainment and personal development during schooling. While those on a pathway to university need some specific development, this need not distort the entire schooling system.

But it seems unlikely the issues in the education sector will be resolved through any single action – not curriculum reform, not providing better mental health support, not through banning social media, not by imposing greater discipline, not by excluding more pupils, not by making colleges better, or reforming universities, or sending more or fewer children to either one.

Some of these solutions will certainly help, and Scotland's exam-heavy university-focussed schools system really does need significant reform if it isn't to fail less academic children (and many who are academic as well). But until we accept that we have created an entire environment for young people which seems designed to undermine their wellbeing and we address it systematically, scapegoating guidance teachers isn't going to help.

Common Weal would start by replacing the mindset behind 'Curriculum for Excellence' with a mindset more focussed on 'a curriculum for wellbeing'. Academic attainment doesn't suffer if there is more emphasis on wellbeing; higher levels of wellbeing promote better educational and developmental outcomes for all children.

Find more about a Curriculum for Wellbeing in our book Sorted.