Trump may force Scotland to decide if it wants to make films

Erratic US President Donald Trump has announced vague plans to raise substantial tariffs on any film shot outside the US. As usual, this is both ill-though-through chaos which no-one really understands – and simultaneously a serious risk that needs to be taken seriously.

No-one knows what this means yet. Is he referring only to US films that take advantages of tax breaks offered by other countries and which film portions of nominally US-made films overseas? Or will he start raising high tariffs on any film not made in the US, including wholly European productions? Or some combination? Or something else? Time will tell.

What seems clear is that he is targetting precisely what has been Scotland's 'film strategy' and which Common Weal recently heavily criticised – pretending that being a location for and providing catering to overseas productions is the same as having a film industry. It isn't, but it appears to be the primary target of Trump's ire (the US has lost 40 per cent of its filmmaking, largely through the overseas filming of US films).

So it seems likely that, if Trump goes through with this, Scotland will need a new film strategy. The confusion means that this might not mean quite what it seems to mean. For example, will this also apply to television? Will it only apply to films that get theatrical distribution? Perhaps we can continue indefinitely being the location of Amazon TV series Good Omens and the location of endless straight-to-broadcast Hallmark Channel movies.

It is more likely though that this will force Scotland to decide whether it wishes to compete for a share of what Trump hopes will be a declining market – or do something else. If we seek to do something else, do we actually want to make films in and by Scotland? And, even more controversially, do we want to make films for Scotland?

One path would be to continue to see Scotland's locations as great backdrops for an international market, but one we service directly. Modern budgets suggest this would be many more romantic comedies than it will be action movies, and the widest international distribution suggests they may not be challenging affairs – but they would be made by Scottish production companies (usually in co-productions).

The alternative is not just to seek new productions but new audiences. Scotland had a strong reputation as a film nation in certain parts of the European film circuit for much of the 1990s and 2000s. This was largely accounted for by socialist realist and political films made by Ken Loach and others who followed in his path.

In Europe, films like this are almost always made in complex co-production deals (as you can tell by the number of production company idents you get at the start of many European film productions). If Trump closes film borders for the US, Scotland is going to have to learn to give up its 'cheap location' relationship with US productions and reintegrate itself into European filmmaking.

But the big question is whether Scotland wants to make films by and for itself. This question would not be controversial in other nations (countries of a similar size to Scotland like Denmark don't think twice about own-language productions designed primarily for a domestic audience). In Scotland it is. It is perhaps our use of English language which means we do not see the need for films by and for ourselves.

The key is creating new audiences. Unless we make the films and show them, we cannot develop audiences; unless we develop audiences, we will have nowhere to show the films. There are many strategies we could consider – from a patriotic 'get out and watch a Scottish film' campaign to simply having regular primetime slots on television in Scotland dedicated to a Scottish film each week.

This will not make Scotland the immediate economic gain from preparing sandwiches and making up beds that our current film strategy achieves, but on the other hand it would actually create real, good jobs in film. How might this be achieved? Last year the UK gave out over £550 in film credits to companies filming in the UK.

Let's assume Scotland's share of this is about £50m. The cost of an independent film can vary greatly but moderate budget indie films (which make up much of the European film market) can be filmed for £1m to £2m (that is the kind of budget Transporting was made for). Start-up and really low budget films can be made for a few hundred thousand pounds. Scotland could make 30 or 40 films a year for the same money.

Make no mistake; a good proportion will be bad. A decent group will be OK to good. A handful will be brilliant and will break through. That is exactly the Holywood system. Is this a path Scotland might consider? Or is being a Hallmark Channel backdrop enough? Trump may force us to decide.