The fragility of peace
Eighty years after VE Day, as global conflict surges and public faith in peace wavers, we can’t lose faith in peace.
Yesterday marked the 80th anniversary of VE Day, an occasion to celebrate and reflect, for many different reasons. It stands as a symbol of overcoming hate, of immense human sacrifice, of sadness, and of commemoration. It was a day of such significance that nothing was the same after it — there was no going back. The post-war period sent us on a completely different trajectory.
“Never again,” we said when we spoke of the Holocaust and other genocides. The determination to prevent further large-scale conflicts led to the creation of institutions like the EU and the UN, founded on the belief that diplomacy and reconciliation must form the basis of lasting peace after such a fractured and devastating period.
Yet, at an uncertain juncture in time, VE Day marked only the beginning of a long road towards peace — or at least towards striving to maintain it. And although there was by no means peace at all times, with the Cold War lurking just around the corner, we now, 80 years later, find ourselves in a world that arguably hasn’t experienced such widespread conflict since the Second World War. And we’re feeling the effects.
A recent YouGov poll suggests that many in Western Europe and the US believe that a third world war is likely within five to ten years. The poll makes for rather grim reading: not only do the majority of respondents believe war is looming, but majorities ranging from 68% to 76% believe such a war would involve nuclear weapons. Consequently, the loss of life would likely exceed what we saw over 80 years ago — hardly a stretch to imagine if nuclear weapons come into play.
Although many respondents believe that the EU and the UN have played key roles in contributing to peace, the fact remains that they clearly don’t think these institutions have done enough to prevent the outbreak of war.
Indicative of patterns we’ve seen in the rise of right-wing politics throughout Western Europe and the US, a significant number of respondents — 33% to 60% — believe that Nazi-style crimes could be committed in their own countries, or in another Western European country or the US. The rise of the far right and its destabilising impact is something many are aware of, consciously or unconsciously. With the likes of Trump or even Farage as major political figures, world unity and security sit on an even shakier path. However, it’s quite shocking that some believe that the atrocities we witnessed over 80 years ago could happen at our own doorstep.
We are evidently losing confidence in our governments and diplomats to prioritise peace — although a direct question on this topic in the poll would have been welcome. Yet, considering the UK’s response to the war in Gaza and Trump’s full-scale attack on Zelensky, is it any wonder? After all, 42% of British respondents find it plausible that a fascist dictatorship could take control of government. And witnessing the inadequate international response to Gaza, allowing a genocide to unfold while this week many will utter the words “never again”, is devastatingly ironic.
The conflicts of today are unprecedented in number since World War Two. According to the Global Peace Index 2024, 92 countries are involved in some form of conflict outside their borders — more than at any time since the index’s inception. The Geneva Academy reports a total of 110 armed conflicts happening at this very moment. The two we hear most about, Gaza and Ukraine, dominate headlines because we have vested interests — they are countries with which we trade, where we hold influence. However, that is not to suggest that the public’s concern is anything but genuine. Yet, sections of the media and the political establishment cannot claim the same sincerity.
Meanwhile, with one of the largest humanitarian crises unfolding in Sudan, we hear barely a murmur, even though the equivalent of Scotland’s population is currently displaced. As I write, tensions between India and Pakistan are escalating, and although there appears to be a ceasefire between the US and Houthis in Yemen, one must wonder how long it will last.
We live in a time when we are bombarded with reports of conflict, and yet the majority of Western Europeans believe that if their countries were drawn into war, they would be underprepared. This is also what we’re being told: that we need to arm up, increase military spending, invest in robust armed forces, and be ready to sacrifice welfare for warfare. To some extent, you can reconcile yourself to the idea of having a military capable of defending the nation or coming to the aid of an ally. The reality, however, is that the UK’s armed forces have been underfunded and reduced by successive Conservative governments. But we must always ask: whom are we ‘defending’ ourselves against? Because using British military resources to bomb Yemen is absolutely not what the UK population wants, nor is it the path we should be taking. And in light of the current anniversary, it is certainly not in keeping with the post-VE Day spirit of peace and unity.
Unsurprisingly, 84% of Britons believe World War Two and the events leading up to it are relevant today, while 90% think it is very or fairly important to continue teaching WWII in schools. It’s clear we see that war as a cautionary tale — yet why do those in power so often play havoc with peace, lacking the conviction to do the right thing and prioritise de-escalation?
Will we face World War Three? Well, it seems there are some on this earth practically gunning for it. But perhaps a more likely outcome would resemble another Cold War, as opposed to full-scale nuclear conflict. Either way, it is perfectly justifiable to feel anxious after catching up with global affairs. It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to imagine such a path unfolding. Yet, having faith that humanity understands the devastation such a path would bring — and will choose another way — is something we must hold on to.
As Keir Starmer said in his VE Day speech: “(VE Day is) a reminder of my responsibility to ensure the peace we’ve enjoyed for 80 years continues.” One can only hope he sincerely means that, because it seems public faith may be slipping. If he wants to contribute meaningfully to global peace, he will indeed need to ensure he is on the right side of history — something I’m not sure he can claim at this moment.
