Don’t grandstand, plan

Many people would like the First Minister to take a stand with Donald Trump. This is not an effective stance - and there are much more effective actions which can be taken.

First published in the National

You might expect me to want the First Minister to boycott a meeting with the current US President. I personally would not have actively sought out a meeting, but heads of state meet heads of state and talking to people you don't like is part of geopolitics.

That does not mean prostrating yourself, or complying – but it also doesn't mean grandstanding. This is not a serious meeting and there is nothing at stake. Talk about the weather for a bit and smile for the camera. It won't change US policy.

Of course most of us want to see someone put Donald Trump in his place, but posing is meaningless – it is what you do that counts.

So Scotland's First Minister should courteously welcome Donal Trump back to Scotland and otherwise do his best to say as little as possible – while the rest of us make boaking gestures in the background.

That does not mean Scotland should treat this current incarnation of the USA passively.

The US has not only become an unreliable partner, it is much less important to us than it was. In reality the British establishment is clinging to the US almost wholly because we have degraded our defence capabilities to the extent that we are entirely reliant on the US for defence.

There are also sectors of the Scottish economy that heavily export to the US (notably whisky and textiles) and in turn the US supplies us with a number of software systems on which we rely. In terms of access to markets, however, it is China that is manufacturing cost-effective batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. We need those more than we need Oreos.

And yes the US still controls the global reserve currency, but Scotland is less exposed to 'dollar bullying' since we don't have our own distinct currency. This gives us some leeway to insulate ourselves from the erratic behaviour of the US.

“We are moving rapidly into a multipolar world and Scotland must adapt”

First, we should be tasking our economic development agencies to work with producers to diversify their markets. If China, India, Brazil, Mexico and others aren't buying enough whisky then we need to help them because they're clearly missing out. In the turbulent world in which we currently live, any exporter overly reliant on a single nation state is vulnerable.

Second, we need to start to develop direct trading relationships with what used to be known as the Brics counties – because they are dominant among the emerging economic players and all of them have large-scale production capacity that links to our needs. We assume that US corporations will always act as go-betweens and we need to stop assuming that.

Third, we should look at areas of vulnerability which could be exposed if the US's behaviour gets more erratic still (we're only one eighth of the way through Trump's term and it isn't clear what is coming next). If a nation state has indicated a willingness to use economic blackmail as a policy tool then you should look at where you might have exposure.

One example of this is in software. Think of the public sector's ability to operate and now ask what would happen if a technology boycott was ever enacted – it has already been used against China. How would we cope?

Other nations are quietly already addressing this weakness. Denmark has dropped public sector use of all Microsoft Office products and is exploring dropping Microsoft more generally. It has shifted to using open source applications such as OpenOffice (which is what we use in Common Weal).

France has also shifted much of its public sector IT to OpenOffice (or rather a version known as LibreOffice) and Germany has just announced it is doing the same. Extending this to a logical conclusion it is simply mad that Scotland is relying solely on US corporate AI. Other nations are training bespoke, public-good AI systems which they then own. Scotland should do the same.

Fourth, we should start to move our soft power diplomacy. There is almost a reflex reaction that 'overseas' means 'US'. How much more might we get tapping in to diaspora in Canada, Australia and New Zealand? Might a Tartan Week in Bejing achieve more than one in New York? Does the average Indian policy-maker know we exist?

We are moving rapidly into a multipolar world and Scotland must adapt. Insulting the US President is frankly a stupid way to do business – but pretending he isn't a threat to our national interests is unrealistic and being inactive in the face of that risk is really dangerous.

Scotland shouldn't stand on the steps and waggle its bare bum at Trump even if it makes us feel better. We should suck up the reality of global diplomacy, do what is needed to get Trump out the country without having developed one of his crazy grudge matches – and then we should roll up our sleeves and take concrete action to make sure no nation can every bully us like this again.